Aston Villa vs Arsenal — Tips & Analysis

Aston Villa +1.25: Arsenal win plenty of games. They just do not win them by much. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 17, and their games have just over 2 goals in them in total. Villa come into this with their forward line taken apart. Ollie Watkins has gone to Al Hilal, Leon Bailey and Brian Madjo are out, Tammy Abraham has a groin problem and Joao Gomes is suspended. Even so, this is a side that stays in games. Villa have lost by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 14. Arsenal have their own problems. William Saliba and Jurrien Timber are both missing, so the back four has to be rebuilt. Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus and Fabio Vieira are all on their way out of the club, which leaves Arsenal thinner going forward. Put that together and you get a slow game that Arsenal control without ever pulling clear. They go in front, then they protect it. A 1-0 Arsenal win is the most likely score here. The risk is a fair one. Villa were beaten 0-4 at Brighton in their only league game, and a team with no proper striker can get picked off late. We think this one stays tight, and we are happy to be on Villa.