AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: The first leg in Sofia finished 0-0, and nothing about these two sides says the return will suddenly open up. Levski are hard to score against. They have let in well under a goal a game across their last 16 games. They have won 10 and lost only 1 in that run, and they have not lost on the road. Only 6 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. AEK are strong at home, 5W-2D-1L there, but goals come slowly for them against organised teams. They tied four games in a row before winning at the weekend, and they let in under a goal a game themselves. Both sides have had four days off, so this is not a night when tired legs pull a game apart. It is a knockout tie where one mistake ends a season, and both teams know it. A 1-0 to AEK, probably late, is the most likely way this is decided inside 90 minutes, and that suits us. The worry is that AEK's home scoring gets a lift from a 4-0 against Iraklis, and they can punish a tiring team. If they score early, Levski have to come out and chase, and the game opens up. We still want the quiet night.