Atalanta vs Venezia — Tips & Analysis

Venezia +1.25: Atalanta have stopped winning games by big margins, and that is the case here. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 16 games. At home they have scored under a goal a game across eight matches, so goals are hard work for them right now. They are also without Hien and Kossounou from the middle of defence. Venezia are bottom of Serie A with no points from five games. They have lost all five and are nine goals worse off than their opponents. Their team news is grim too. Adorante is out with a hernia, and centre-backs Bella-Kotchap and Sverko are missing as well. So we are not arguing that Venezia get a result here. We are backing them to lose this narrowly. Atalanta have won four of the last five games between the two sides and lost none, and those meetings averaged just over 2 goals. All four of those Atalanta wins came by 2 or more goals, so the history is a worry. A 1-0 Atalanta win is the most likely score, and a one goal game is exactly what we want. The danger is a collapse from a patched up away side. Venezia have lost by 2 or more goals in four of their last 15 games. Both teams have also had more than three weeks off, so fitness and team news are a guess. We still expect Atalanta to win this without ever pulling clear.