Kashiwa Reysol vs Imabari — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.25: This one is built to stay tight. Imabari have kept games to 3 goals or fewer in 16 of their last 19. Kashiwa have done the same in 12 of theirs. Kashiwa are the higher division side and have the better players, but they are oddly flat at their own ground. They have won 5 and lost 5 there, scoring and letting in more than a goal a game. They also needed a 2-1 to get past university side Senshu in the last round. Eleven of their 19 games were decided by a single goal. Imabari are having a hard season with 5 wins from 19, but they are harder to beat away from home. They have tied 3 of their 10 road games and they beat Sagan Tosu 1-0 on 12 September. Kashiwa played just 3 days ago, so changes are likely and the tempo should drop. A 2-1 Kashiwa win is the read here. That is a contained game where the better side finds a way through without ever pulling clear, and it is the shape we want. The warning is real though. Kashiwa's recent games have been open at both ends, and 10 of their last 19 finished with 3 or more goals. If these two start trading early, it gets away from us fast. We still want the quieter game.