Pisa vs Empoli — Tips & Analysis

Pisa -0.25: Pisa are the better team here, and that is the heart of this pick. They played last season in Serie A. Empoli played a division below in Serie B. Pisa's record of 1 win, 1 tie and 14 losses in 16 games looks grim. Then you see who they played. Napoli, Roma, Lazio, Torino and Como are all on that list. Those numbers make Pisa look far worse than they are against a team from the division below. They score less than a goal a game, so we are not expecting a big win. Empoli travel badly. They won none of their nine away games last season and score just over a goal a game. Both sides arrive cold. Pisa have not played a competitive game in 86 days, Empoli in 101. This is one match, the loser goes out, and a tie after 90 minutes brings extra time. Teams in that spot protect what they have instead of throwing men forward. A 1-0 to Pisa is how this most likely goes, decided by one moment from the home side. The warning is real. Empoli finished level or within one goal in 13 of their 16 games, so they are awkward to beat even when they are poor. We still want Pisa, at their own ground, against the weaker squad.