Birmingham vs Southampton — Tips & Analysis

Southampton +0.25: Southampton are simply the better team here, and they have the record to show it. They have won 10 of their last 16 games and score just over 2 goals a game. On the road they have won 4 of 7 trips, scoring 2 a game and letting in only one. They beat Millwall 5-1 last time out, so the attack is working. Birmingham are the opposite kind of side. They score just over a goal a game and their games average just over 2 goals in total. They have won by 2 or more goals only once in their last 15, so they rarely take a game away from anyone. Birmingham are also short in midfield. Gardner-Hickman and Leonard are out and Buchanan is doubtful, which is a lot to lose in the middle. The recent history backs the away side too. Birmingham have not beaten Southampton in the last 6 meetings, losing four of them. We expect Birmingham to stay in the game and find one goal, with Southampton scoring twice. A 1-2 away win is the likely story. The risk is real though. Birmingham are hard to beat at home, and Southampton miss Jander with centre back Harwood-Bellis doubtful. One loose night at the back could flip this. We are still with Southampton.