Kashiwa Reysol vs V-varen Nagasaki — Tips & Analysis

Kashiwa Reysol -0.75: Nagasaki have nothing going forward on the road, and that is the heart of this one. They have won 3 and lost 6 of their nine away games, and they score less than a goal a game when they travel. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 18 games. Kashiwa are the better team and they are playing well. They have won both league games this season, including a 3-1 win away at Tokyo Verdy, and they sit third. They score more than a goal a game and let in just over a goal a game. They won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 19. Kashiwa have also won 3 of the last 4 meetings, though these two have not played each other since 2019. This should be a controlled game rather than a wild one. Kashiwa keep the ball and wait for the opening, and Nagasaki sit deep and hope for a set piece. A 1-0 home win looks the most likely score, and we want Kashiwa to add a second late on. The worry is Kashiwa's own home record. They have won 5 and lost 5 of their ten home games, and they score just over a goal a game there. They almost never tie, so an early Nagasaki goal could flip this. We are still with the better team.