Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig — Tips & Analysis

Over 3.75: Leipzig let in 3 goals a game on the road, and they keep finding the net in those defeats as well. That mix is why we want goals at the Bernabeu. Leipzig have won 2 and lost 6 of their away games. Those trips include a 1-6 at Bayern, a 1-4 at Como and a 1-3 at Werder Bremen. They scored in every one of those defeats, so they will not just sit back here. 12 of Leipzig's last 14 games had 3 or more goals. Real Madrid have won all eight of their home games, scoring just over 3 goals a game and letting in under one. They do not slow down once they are ahead, and 10 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals. The script is simple. Madrid go in front, Leipzig get one back, and Madrid add a third as the game stretches. A 3-1 is our read, and we want this one to keep stretching past four goals. Two things could spoil it. The four past meetings between these clubs averaged under 3 goals, and only one of them had 3 or more goals in it. Madrid have had only 3 days since beating Sevilla 4-1, and with Rodrygo and Asencio out they may rest players. We still want the open, high-scoring game.