Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka — Tips & Analysis

Cerezo Osaka +0.25: Cerezo have more quality than their recent run suggests, and that is why we want them here. They have won 10 of their last 18 games, score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game. Nagoya have the weaker record of the two. They have won only 6 of their last 18 and let in more than 2 goals a game. 15 of those 18 games had 3 or more goals, so nothing about Nagoya is tight and chances will come. Both teams sit on twelve points in the middle of the table, and this should swing from end to end. We read it as a 1-2 away win, with Nagoya scoring and Cerezo's finishing making the difference. The last 20 meetings have averaged almost 3 goals, so that open shape fits the history. Now the warning, and it matters. Cerezo have not won any of their last five league games and were beaten 2-4 at home by Kawasaki last time out. They also let in more than 2 goals a game on the road, which is the worst number in this game. Nagoya have won their last two league games and have defended better lately, so this is closer than the table suggests. We are still happy to be on the side getting a start.