Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Goals have never come easy when these two meet, and that is the heart of this pick. The last nine meetings have averaged 2 goals in total, and the recent list includes a 0-0, a 0-1 and a 1-1. Kyoto are the main reason why. They sit 16th on eight points and barely score, under a goal a game, with just two goals in their last three league games. They were beaten 0-3 at Hiroshima last time out and have won five and lost five of their last ten home games. Kashima look scary on paper, with 13 wins from their last 19 and more than 2 goals a game. Look closer though. A 7-1 win over Newcastle Jets lifts that scoring figure, and they have been scoring more than their chances deserve lately. Kyoto can also sit in when they have to, as a 1-0 win over Ratchaburi and a 0-0 tie with Machida showed. We read this as a 0-2 away win, which keeps the total low and lands the bet. The honest worry is what Kashima can do on a good night. They have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 19 games. If they score early, Kyoto have to come out and chase, and that would open the game up. We will take the quiet night.