Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk — Tips & Analysis

Over 3.5: Inter's home games have been wild, and that is the case for goals at San Siro. Their home games have had more than 4 goals in them on average, with 5-3, 3-4 and 3-2 among the scorelines. Inter score more than 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game. 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. They have nothing from their first two Champions League games, losing 1-2 at Real Madrid and 3-4 at home to Club Brugge. They have to attack this one. Shakhtar Donetsk arrive on five straight wins and have been strong away. That run is built on Ukrainian league games against the likes of Kolos Kovalivka and Veres Rivne. Their European record is a 1-1 at PSV and a 3-1 home win over AEK Athens. Be clear about what this needs, though. A 2-1 Inter win is the most likely single score, and that is not enough for us. We need a fourth goal, and Inter's leaky home games are the reason to think it arrives. The risks are real. Shakhtar let in less than a goal a game, and 11 of their last 14 games stayed at three goals or fewer. Inter are also without Lautaro Martinez for around seven games. We still want the goals here.