Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock — Tips & Analysis

Fagiano Okayama -0.5: Mito turn up in bad shape, and that is the main reason we are backing Okayama. Mito have lost their last four league games and sit 14th on nine points. They have won only 4 of their last 20 games and have created almost nothing in their last three. Their away scoring looks fine until you check it. A 7-0 cup win over lower-division Fukushima United props it up, and the other three trips brought 0, 0 and 1 goal. Okayama are the steadier side. They have won 8 of their last 15, score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. They were beaten 0-3 at home by Vissel Kobe three days ago, so they have something to put right. This matchup rarely gives much away. The last five meetings finished 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 1-1, and the last 20 have averaged 2 goals. So we expect a 1-0 home win, with Okayama on the ball, one scruffy goal, then the shutters down. The risk here is real. Two of those last five meetings were 1-1 ties, and Mito can still spring a surprise. They beat FC Tokyo 1-0 in the cup last week and Kashima 4-2 earlier this season. Okayama also played three days ago, so tired legs are possible. We still think they have enough to win this one.