Rodez vs Montpellier — Tips & Analysis

Montpellier +0: Montpellier have lost just one of their eight away games, and they are facing a team in free fall. Rodez are 17th on 7 points and have lost four in a row. They were beaten 0-2 at Saint-Etienne, 3-4 at home by Nancy, 0-1 at home by Grenoble and 1-4 at Metz. They score 2 goals a game at home, but they let in almost 2, and that soft defense is the problem against better sides. Montpellier sit fifth on 15 points and are built the other way round. They have won 6, tied 7 and lost only 2 of their last 15, and they let in under a goal a game on the road. They do not score a lot, with just over a goal a game, so this is about control rather than firepower. Three of their last eight games finished 1-0 and another had no goals at all. Rodez have also lost 6 of the last 9 meetings. A 0-1 away win is the clear read here, and that is enough for this pick. The catch is the tie. Montpellier have tied four of their eight away games, and Rodez beat them 1-0 in February. Rodez are lively at home too, where their five games have averaged almost 4 goals. We still think Montpellier have too much for this Rodez side.