Monza vs Cagliari — Tips & Analysis

Cagliari +0.25: Cagliari are the better team right now, and Monza are in no shape to beat anyone by much. Monza sit 15th on four points from six games and have five players out, Pessina among them. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 14 games. At their own ground they do score, almost 2 goals a game, but they let in more than a goal a game there. Cagliari are 7th in Serie A on 13 points from six games and have won 9 of their last 16. They are 4W-1D-2L on the road and let in 1 goal a game. Nine of their 16 results have been one-goal wins. That is a team who keep games close and find a way to win. Both sides have had 8 days off, so nobody has tired legs for an excuse. Cagliari should run the middle of the game, Monza get one back through the weight of home attack, and a 1-1 is how this reads. A game neither side pulls clear in is exactly what this wants. The risk is Monza's scoring at home. Their games average more than 3 goals, and a loose, open night could get away from Cagliari. Cagliari have also been giving up more chances lately than their clean scorelines show, so the margins are finer than they look. We still want the away side.