Yokohama F. Marinos vs Shimizu S-pulse — Tips & Analysis

Yokohama F. Marinos -0.25: Marinos are the better team with the better defense, and Shimizu have not shown they can win a game like this on the road. Marinos have not lost in five, score more than a goal a game and let in under a goal. They have also made the 2-0 their habit this autumn, beating Mito and Kashiwa by that exact score. Across their last 18 games they have won 9, tied 5 and lost 4. Shimizu arrive on a five-match winning run, but look at who it came against. Those wins came over Mito, V-varen Nagasaki, Kanazawa, JEF United and Avispa Fukuoka. None of them are at Marinos' level. Away from Shizuoka, Shimizu have won 3 and lost 4 of their last seven, scoring under a goal a game and letting in more than one. The history says the same thing. In the last 20 meetings Marinos have won 11 and lost 5. Marinos should get in front and then run the game from there, and a 2-0 home win is the likeliest finish. That is the sort of result this pick wants. The risk is the team sheet. This is a cup round of 32, both coaches are expected to make changes, and Shimizu have a day less rest. Shimizu are also playing better than their league position suggests, so this is no stroll. We still want Marinos to have too much here.