Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: The history between these two is the whole case here. Their last 14 meetings have averaged almost 2 goals in total, and the last five finished 0-0, 0-2, 0-1, 0-0 and 1-1. Sagan Tosu have scored once in those five games. Tosu are a division lower, but they are a hard night at home, with 6 wins, 2 ties and 2 losses in their last ten there. They let in only a goal a game on that ground, and they are happy to keep things quiet. Avispa come from the division above and still barely score. They manage just over a goal a game and have won 4, tied 6 and lost 8 of their last 18. All 8 of those losses came by a single goal, and they have won by 2 or more only once in the 18. So they stay close to teams without ever running away from them. Both sides have had 4 days off, and neither attack looks like taking this game apart. A 1-0 home win is the likeliest finish, and one goal clears this bet with plenty to spare. The warning is the round. This is a cup round of 32, so both coaches may rest players and send out a changed side. Tosu have had 3 or more goals in 8 of their last 19 games, and Avispa in 8 of their last 18. A loose, open night is not impossible. We still want the quiet, low-scoring game here.