QPR vs Derby — Tips & Analysis

Derby +1: QPR do not win games by much, and that is the whole case for backing Derby to stay close. QPR have tied their last four league games: 1-1 at West Ham, 2-2 Preston, 1-1 at West Brom and 0-0 at Charlton. They have tied six of 14 overall and won by 2 or more goals only once in those 14. They score about a goal a game and are without Karamoko Dembele and Tariq Lamptey, with Ilias Chair a muscle doubt. At Loftus Road they have just one win in seven. Derby are a poor side, 23rd in the table with six points from nine games. Their defence is picked apart by injury, with Cashin, Clarke, Taylor and Johnston all out, as is goalkeeper Widell Zetterstrom. Even so, Derby have been beaten by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 14 games. This pairing is usually played out in low numbers, and the last 20 meetings have averaged almost 2 goals. A 1-1 looks the likeliest finish, which keeps Derby comfortably inside what we need. The danger is plain. Derby let in more than a goal a game. QPR will have the better of the chances on their own ground, so a rare big QPR win would hurt us. We still think Derby keep this tight.