Norwich vs Southampton — Tips & Analysis

Southampton +0.25: Norwich are falling apart at the back and Southampton are the tidier, better organised side, so we want the away team. Norwich have lost four in a row in all competitions, three of them in the league. They have let in four or more goals in three of their last five, including 0-5 at Manchester City and 3-4 at Middlesbrough. They let in just over 2 goals a game and have six players out, captain Kenny McLean among them. Southampton have won 8 and lost only 4 of their last 16 games. They let in just over a goal a game, and the leading scorer in the division plays up front for them. History leans the same way. Norwich have won only 4 of the last 17 meetings between these two and lost 8. Southampton are much quieter on the road, with 2 wins, 3 ties and 3 losses in eight away trips at little more than a goal a game. So we expect them to control this game and win it without running riot. A 1-2 away win is the likeliest finish, with a leaky Norwich back line pulling one back in front of their own crowd. There is a warning here. Norwich have scored almost 3 goals a game in their five home games, and Southampton had a day less rest after Sunday. Southampton are still the better team and we are happy to back them.