Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.25: Matsumoto keep games quiet, and that is the main reason this pick is on. Their games have just over 2 goals in them on average, and only 8 of their last 19 had 3 or more. They have tied 9 of those 19 games. Matsumoto score just over a goal a game and let in about the same, so they do not trade goals with anyone. Sanfrecce are the best side in this tie, with 13 wins from their last 16 and five in a row. The key part for us is their defending. They let in well under a goal a game, and away from home they are tighter still. Sanfrecce have won by 2 or more in 10 of their last 16, so they control games rather than race through them. They are also without forward Kusini Yengi and defender Yamasaki. Matsumoto's plan in these ties is to sit deep and make the better team work for it. They have already tied 3-3 with J1 Shonan Bellmare and beaten Albirex Niigata 1-0 in this competition. A 0-2 away win is the likeliest script, and a game like that stays well short of a busy night. The warning is the old history. The last five meetings averaged 4 goals, so there is a version of this that opens up. We still expect a controlled, low scoring tie.