Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: These two have a long history of tight, careful nights, and that is the main reason we want the quieter game. Their last seven meetings have averaged 3 goals each. City are flying, with five straight wins and a 3-0 at Anfield, but they do their damage without leaving the back door open. They have won seven of their last eight at home and let in less than a goal a game in that run. PSG look like the bigger threat to a low score, yet they travel very differently. In nine away games they score more than a goal a game and let in 1 a game, and three of those nine finished level. The wider picture agrees. City's games bring just over 3 goals on average and PSG's bring just over 3 as well. City also had a day less rest than PSG, so they will want to control this game rather than run at it. A 2-1 City win is the likeliest finish, and a three goal night lands this for us. The honest risk is quality. PSG have been creating plenty of chances lately, and City's low goals against number is flattering a back line that gives up more than it looks. A 3-1 or a 2-2 is very much on. We still expect this to stay below the busy end.