Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.75: Villa Park has been the soft spot in Aston Villa's recent run, and that is why we are taking the busier game. Villa have let in more than a goal a game across their last four home matches, winning one, tying one and losing two. They lost 1-2 to Nottingham Forest and 0-1 to Arsenal, and tied 2-2 with Brentford. Their games rarely stay quiet either. 11 of their last 13 had 3 or more goals, at more than 3 goals a game. They also scored three in each of their last three away trips. Villa are also without Onana and both first choice left backs, Maatsen and Ruggeri, so Wan-Bissaka is expected to fill in. Fenerbahce carry a threat too, scoring just over 2 goals a game, though that leans on an 8-0 win over Eyupspor. In their other five recent games they scored 3, 2, 1, 1 and 0. The honest read is a tight 1-1, because Fenerbahce have let in less than a goal a game in eight away trips. The only meeting between these clubs finished 1-0. So this needs the game to open up, and Villa's leaky home form is the reason it can. We are backing goals here with our eyes open.