AS Roma vs Real Madrid — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Roma hardly let a goal in at home and Real Madrid are a much quieter team on the road, so we are backing the low scoring game. Roma have not lost in their last seven at the Stadio Olimpico: five wins and two ties, at less than a goal a game let in. They have also tied three of their last four in all competitions, 2-2 with Inter and 1-1 at Fenerbahce among them. Real Madrid have won 11 of their last 15 games. Away from the Bernabeu they are weaker, with 4 wins, 1 tie and 3 losses in eight trips at little more than a goal a game. They arrive without defenders Militao, Mendy and Asencio plus Rodrygo, so both ends of the team are patched up. The last five meetings between the clubs averaged under 3 goals each. That fits a tight, tactical night where chances are rare and neither side wants to make the first mistake. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish and that is comfortably few enough goals for us. The risk sits in the Roma goal. Svilar broke a toe, so Gollini plays instead. A soft early goal could stretch this game open against a Real side that scores just over 2 goals a game. We still want the quiet night.