Villarreal vs Napoli — Tips & Analysis

Napoli +0.5: Napoli are hard to beat on the road, and that is the base of this pick. They let in under a goal a game and have tied three of their last six away games. Both sides lost their opening game, Villarreal 3-2 at Dortmund and Napoli 1-0 at home to Arsenal. A point has real worth to each of them now. Villarreal will have more of the ball at La Ceramica. Their home games have been open, with two wins, one tie and three losses in their last six there. They let in almost 2 goals a game at home. Their trouble is the finishing. They make plenty of chances and have not been taking them all season. The five previous meetings are split, two wins each and one tie, and those games averaged more than 2 goals in total. Nothing in that points to a home side pulling clear. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and Napoli leaving Spain unbeaten is the call we are making. The caution is real. Buongiorno, Olivera and Vergara are all out and Anguissa is a doubt, so Napoli are short at centre-back and in midfield. If Villarreal's finishing finally turns up, that patched-up defence is how this gets away from us. We are still happy taking Napoli to stay on their feet.