Birmingham vs Preston — Tips & Analysis

Birmingham -0.75: There is a gap in class and in form here. Birmingham sit seventh on 14 points. Preston are bottom on 4, with 16 league goals let in already, under Graham Alexander who only took over in September. Birmingham have also had Preston's number lately, winning the last three meetings 2-1, 1-0 and 1-0. Birmingham have lost only 2 of their last 15 games. They score more than a goal a game and let in about the same, so they win without ever looking comfortable. Preston are the opposite kind of team. They have won 2 and lost 9 of their last 13 games, scoring 1 goal a game and letting in 2. They have lost by 2 or more goals in 4 of those 13. They are missing McCann and Potts, with Carroll doubtful. St Andrew's has not been a quiet ground. Birmingham have tied four of their last seven home games there, and those home games have averaged almost 4 goals in total. We read this as a 2-1 Birmingham win, with Preston scoring and the closing stages getting nervous. The more Birmingham win by, the better this looks. Here is the honest problem. Birmingham have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 15 games, and their home ties make a 1-1 live. We still want Birmingham, because Preston have lost nine of thirteen and keep letting in goals.