Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United — Tips & Analysis

Atletico Madrid -0.25: United arrive in Madrid without a big chunk of their first team. At least seven senior players are out, including de Ligt, Shaw, Ugarte, Mainoo and Sesko. Atletico are reported fully fit. That gap in available bodies is the main reason we are on the home side. Atletico have won four of their last five games and 9 of their last 16. They score more than a goal a game and let in just over one. They are patient and well organised at home, and they wear teams down rather than win big. United's away football has been about not losing. They have tied three of their last six away games and score just over a goal a game on the road. Their last five games read two ties, two losses and a win. With this many players missing they will sit deep and try to make the night frustrating. Atletico have handled this matchup before. They have won three of the last five meetings between the clubs, and those five games averaged under 2 goals in total. That fits what we expect here, a tight and low-scoring night that Atletico take 1-0. The risk is plain enough. United are hard to beat on the road right now, and a 1-1 would leave this pick short. We still think the fitter and better organised team finds a way through.