Kashima vs Gamba Osaka — Tips & Analysis

Kashima -0.5: Kashima have owned this matchup. In the last 20 meetings with Gamba Osaka, Kashima have won 11, tied 7 and lost only 2. They are the better side again here. Kashima have won 11 of their last 19 games and they score more than 2 goals a game. Gamba arrive 16th in J1 on six points from eight games, and they have let in six more goals than they have scored. Their league run reads three defeats and two ties. Gamba score almost 2 goals a game over a longer run, but the recent league version of this team has been much blunter. The schedule helps Kashima too. They have had 16 days to prepare. Gamba played six days ago and lost a cup game 4-5 at Kashiwa, so legs and belief are both a question. A 2-1 Kashima win is the honest read, and a home win is all we need. Kashima should boss the ball and win on quality. Gamba should nick one against a back line that has let in goals in all six of its last six games. The worry is real, though. Kashima have not won a J1 game in four, taking a 3-3, a 1-2, a 0-1 at home and a 2-4 along the way. A long break can bring rust and changes just as easily as fresh legs. We still think Kashima have too much for this Gamba side.