Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: Games between these two are almost always tight. The last 20 meetings have averaged almost 2 goals, and the last five read 1-1, 0-0, 0-0, 2-2 and 1-0. That is a pattern, not a run of luck. St Patrick's are the main reason for it. They let in less than a goal a game on their travels, and only 5 of their last 19 games had three or more goals in them. Their matches average just over 2 goals in total, which is about as quiet as this league gets. Derry are unbeaten in five and are hard to beat at the Brandywell, where they have won six of ten. They do not need a busy game to get a result. Both sides have been sitting idle for about three weeks, and rusty teams in a game that matters tend to be careful rather than open. A 1-1 is the obvious finish, and that is what we are leaning on. The honest problem is Derry's own habits. Their games average more than 3 goals and 12 of their last 20 had three or more, with a 3-3 and a 3-5 in the recent run. St Patrick's are three points off the top with a title to chase, so they may throw more at it late. We still expect a quiet night.