Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen — Tips & Analysis

Borussia Dortmund -1.5: Dortmund are flying and Werder Bremen arrive in no shape to stop them. Dortmund sit top of the Bundesliga and have won their last five games in a row. They have won 11 of their last 15 and have not lost by 2 or more goals once in that run. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in less than one. That is the profile of a team that gets in front early and then controls things. Bremen are the opposite kind of visitor. They have eight players out, including Agu, Lynen, Musah and Stage, and they score just over a goal a game on the road. Their away record reads two wins, two ties and three losses. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in four of their last 13. Dortmund have won 11 of the last 20 meetings between the clubs, so the pattern runs deep as well. We read this as a 2-0 Dortmund win. They should go ahead in the first half, and Bremen do not carry enough away from home to make them chase it. A two goal win is what we want, and that is well within a side in this form. The one caveat is Dortmund's habit of winning small. Five of their 11 wins came by a single goal, and they have five players doubtful after a 20 day break. We are still backing Dortmund to have too much.