Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.5: Both of these sides play in high scoring games. 10 of Cerezo's last 18 had 3 or more goals, and 10 of Kagoshima's last 20 did too. Cerezo have not lost at home all season. They have won 6 and tied 3 there, scoring more than 2 goals a game, so they will push forward against a third tier side. They were also beaten 1-6 at Sanfrecce Hiroshima recently, which shows their defence can be opened up. Kagoshima are not coming to sit back. They have won 13, tied 4 and lost 3 of their last 20, and they arrive on four wins and a tie. They score more than 2 goals a game on the road. They knocked out second tier Albirex Niigata 4-0 in the last round. Then there is the schedule. Cerezo have had 8 days since their last game and Kagoshima only 3, so legs should tire and the game should stretch out late. A 2-1 Cerezo win is the likeliest score, and that is enough for us. The caution is at the back. Kagoshima let in less than a goal a game, and Cerezo give up less than a goal a game at home. Kagoshima's own games average almost 3 goals, so one early goal and a quiet hour would beat this. We still want the goals.