United Arab Emirates vs Qatar — Tips & Analysis

United Arab Emirates -0.5: The UAE have been the best team in this group by a clear distance. They have won both games 3-0 and 4-0, scoring seven goals without letting one in. They top the group on goal difference, plus seven against Qatar's plus three. That means a tie keeps the UAE first and Qatar have to win to go top. That is what should shape this game. Qatar cannot sit back and hold a tie, so they have to push forward and leave space behind them. Qatar have won 3, tied 3 and lost 5 of their last 11 games. They score under a goal a game and let in almost 2. Their coach has rotated heavily through the group, his players are struggling with tiredness, and he had still not picked his side the day before kickoff. The UAE score more than a goal a game and look far better going forward. Qatar can defend, and they kept clean sheets in both group games, 1-0 over Yemen and 2-0 over Bahrain. Even so, a 2-1 UAE win looks the likeliest result here. The warning is short. Qatar have won four of the last nine meetings between these two, so this is closer than the group table suggests. Both sides are already in the semi-finals, so a flat game is possible. We are backing the UAE to win it.