VfL Osnabrück vs Bayern München — Tips & Analysis

VfL Osnabrück +4: Bayern do not win by big margins very often. They have won by four or more goals just three times in their last 15 games, and by five or more only once. That is the habit this pick leans on. Osnabrück are not easy to beat heavily either. They have lost by 2 or more goals only once in their last 13 games. They score almost 2 goals a game and let in just over a goal a game. At home they have been better still, letting in just 1 goal a game across their last six there and winning four of them. Bayern are also changing the team. Neuer is rested for Jonas Urbig, and Harry Kane, Alphonso Davies, Dayot Upamecano, Konrad Laimer and Aleksandar Pavlović are all reported out of the starting side. Jamal Musiala is a doubt. Bayern then face a league trip to Schalke three days later, so there is no reason to chase goals late on. A 1-3 Bayern win looks like the shape of this one. Osnabrück get a goal in front of their own crowd, and Bayern do the job without piling on. The warning is Bayern's scoring. They score just over 3 goals a game and have won 12 of their last 15. Osnabrück were also beaten 0-3 at home by Magdeburg on 15 August. We still expect Osnabrück to keep the gap manageable.