Tokyo Verdy vs Vissel Kobe — Tips & Analysis

Tokyo Verdy +0.5: Kobe do not beat teams by much. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 2 of their last 18 games, and that is the heart of this pick. On the road they are exactly 3W-3D-3L, and they let in more than a goal a game away from home. They score more than a goal a game, so they are not built to run away with a game like this. Verdy are having a bad season. They sit 19th with 2 points from four games and they score under a goal a game. What they do have is shape. They sit deep, they stay compact, and they have won two of the last six meetings with Kobe. Only 7 of Verdy's last 20 games had 3 or more goals in them, so expect this to be slow and tight. Both sides should find a goal and neither should force a second. A 1-1 tie looks the most likely result, and that is the night we want. The warning is real. Verdy lost 0-2 at home to Kashima last time out and have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 20. Kobe have taken 10 points from their last five games and beat Cerezo 1-0 in their most recent one. We still expect Verdy to stay with them.