Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.75: Nagoya bring goals wherever they go. 14 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals in them, and their games average more than 3 goals in total. Away from home they are worse. They have won two of their eight road games and let in more than 2 goals a game on their travels. Hiroshima are set up to take that apart. They have not lost in nine games at their own ground and they score more than 2 goals a game there. They also created a pile of chances in a 0-0 at Gamba last week and took none of them. That kind of miss usually corrects itself. The last home meeting between these two finished 4-2 to Hiroshima in May. Nagoya come to play football and they leave space at the back. Expect Hiroshima on top early, with Nagoya good enough to take one back. A 3-1 Hiroshima win looks the most likely result, and that is the busy game we want. The warning is Hiroshima themselves. Only 8 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them, and two of their last five ended 0-0 and 1-1. If the first goal takes an hour, this gets tight. We still expect goals.