Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol — Tips & Analysis

Cerezo Osaka +0.5: This game does not produce winners. Four of the last five meetings ended level, at 1-1, 0-0, 1-1 and 1-1, and across the last 20 meetings there have been 8 ties. That history is the core of this pick. Cerezo have not lost in their last nine home games, winning 6 and tying 3. They score almost 2 goals a game and let in just over one, so they defend well and still carry a threat. Kashiwa are the form team. They arrive top of the league on 12 points from four games and have won their last five. They also let in just 1 goal a game on the road. That is why this looks like a low-scoring, even afternoon rather than a shootout. Cerezo have the shape to make a good side work for every chance, and Kashiwa are not a team that forces games open. A 1-1 tie is the likely result, and that suits us. Now the honest part. Kashiwa's run is the clear threat. They have won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 19 games, so they can put a game away when they are on top. Cerezo have been up and down lately as well, losing 0-1 at Vissel Kobe and 0-3 at Avispa Fukuoka inside their last five. We still think Cerezo do enough here to avoid defeat.