New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.25: These two barely produce a goal when they meet. Their last 10 games against each other have averaged just over one goal in total, and only one of the ten had 3 or more goals. That run is the base of this pick. Nashville are the main reason to trust it. They lead the Eastern Conference with 43 points and a goal difference of +24. On the road they let in less than a goal a game across nine trips. Only 10 of their last 20 games have had 3 or more goals. The Red Bulls actually handle Nashville well. They have won 5, tied 4 and lost 1 of the last 10 between them. Those games were tight and low scoring, not shootouts. New York score more than a goal a game, but Nashville close the middle of the pitch, so clear chances stay rare. Nashville also travel on 3 days' rest with Yazbek out. A rotated side will manage this game rather than chase it. A 1-2 Nashville win reads right here. The risk is the ground. The Red Bulls let in 2 goals a game across 11 home matches, and 14 of their last 20 games have had 3 or more goals. One loose spell turns this into a four goal night and beats the pick. We still expect a tight, low scoring game.