Atletico Madrid vs Malaga — Tips & Analysis

Atletico Madrid -1.25: Malaga are the reason this pick is on. Every one of their last 10 games came in the second tier. They have won 7 and lost only 2 of their last 15, but none of that run came against a side like this one. They also arrive short handed. Calero, Diarra, Juanpe, Murillo and Nino are all injured, and Ochoa is suspended after a red card. Atletico will have the ball and push Malaga back at the Metropolitano. They have beaten Malaga in 10 of their last 16 meetings. They have also had 87 days since their last game, so the legs should be fresh. Simeone's teams squeeze weaker sides slowly rather than blow them away, and their home games stay quiet. Atletico have scored just over a goal a game across seven home matches. A 2-0 looks the most likely finish, a goal either side of half time, and that is enough here. The worry is up front. Atletico start the season with no fit main striker. Julian Alvarez is not ready after the World Cup final and Sorloth has a muscle injury. They won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16 games, so a narrow 1-0 is very live. We still lean to Atletico having far too much for a promoted side.