Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.25: Levski have turned this into a habit. Their last three European wins have all been 1-0, twice against Kairat Almaty and once at home to Universitatea Craiova. They know how to make a game small. At home they have won 8 of nine and let in well under a goal a game. Across their last 16 they have won 11 and lost only once, and only 6 of those games had 3 or more goals. Their games average just over 2 goals in total. AEK are the bigger name, but they arrive short of rhythm. They have played one competitive game since 17 May, a 2-2 tie with OFI in the Super Cup. They have tied four of their last five, and away from home they score just over a goal a game. They are also missing Gacinovic, and defender Penrice has left for Rangers. Put a rusty AEK side against a defense this stubborn, in a first leg in Sofia, and goals are hard to find. A 1-0 Levski win is the most likely score, and that is the kind of game we expect. The warning is AEK's quality. They beat Rayo Vallecano 3-1 and PAOK 3-0 in their last competitive run, so they can score in bunches when they click. If Levski have to chase, this gets busier. We still expect a quiet night.