Newcastle vs Bayer Leverkusen — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.75: Two leaky teams meet in a final tune-up, and that is exactly the kind of game we want goals in. Newcastle let in almost 2 goals a game last season and lost 8 of their last 15. A 2-7 loss at Barcelona sits in that run, so the back line can come apart against good movement. Leverkusen are just as open. They score almost 2 goals a game and let in almost 2, and their games average more than 3 goals in total. Leverkusen have had 3 or more goals in 7 of their last 13 games, and Newcastle in 10 of their last 15. These two have met once before, in December 2025, and it finished 2-2. A repeat of that is the likeliest outcome here, and it clears our pick with room to spare. Both teams will empty the bench too, and tired legs late on usually mean more gaps, not fewer. The risk is easy to name. Leverkusen played at Nottingham Forest just three days ago, so heavy changes are certain and a young side may not carry the same punch. If both managers treat this as a jog rather than a game, it can die as a flat, low-scoring run-out. We still expect goals at both ends.