Leeds vs FC Augsburg — Tips & Analysis

FC Augsburg +0.75: Leeds do not beat teams by big margins, and that is the case for taking Augsburg with a head start. Leeds have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 18 games. They are in far better rhythm and they defend their own ground well. Leeds let in less than a goal a game at home last season across seven home games. They also played only 13 days ago, winning 4-2 at Liverpool. Augsburg are no pushover either. They won 8 of their last 16, finished 9th in the Bundesliga and just missed out on Europe. They score more than a goal a game and were 4W-1D-4L on the road. This is Leeds's sixth and last warm-up of the summer, so heavy changes and a drop in tempo are near certain after the hour. The likely finish is a narrow Leeds win, around 2-1. So this needs Augsburg to keep it tight, and a tie or better would make it easy. The clear risk is rust. Augsburg have not played for 91 days, and a slow start against a team in rhythm could leave them 2 down early. If that happens, the head start will not save it. We still think Augsburg have enough about them to keep this close.