FSV Mainz 05 vs Bournemouth — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Bournemouth are one of the quietest teams around, and Mainz are not the side to blow that open. Bournemouth have not lost in their last 16 games, but they tied 9 of them. Their games have just over 2 goals in them on average, and only 7 of those 16 had 3 or more. Away from home they are tighter still. They let in less than a goal a game on the road and score just over one, so their away games rarely get busy. Mainz are more open than that. They let in more than a goal a game at their own ground and lost 3 of their 6 there. Even so, only 6 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. Put the two together and it all points one way. Mainz had 3 goals or fewer in 10 of their last 13 games, and Bournemouth in 13 of 16. Mainz have also gone 91 days without a game and Bournemouth 83, so expect rust, careful passing and heavy changes after the hour. A 1-1 is the likely finish, and that sits comfortably inside what we need. The risk is a friendly full of substitutes coming loose late on. Two teams this careful should keep it tight, and we are backing the quiet game.