Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki — Tips & Analysis

Fagiano Okayama -0.25: When Fagiano win at home, they win without letting a goal in. Their three home wins in this run were 2-0 over Shimizu, 1-0 over Sanfrecce and 2-0 over Avispa. That habit is why we are with them. Fagiano are a middling side over the season. They have won 6, tied 3 and lost 6 of their last 15, and they score more than a goal a game. At City Light Stadium they have been a tighter, meaner team. Nagasaki are the tricky part. They have won 8, tied 2 and lost 8 of their last 18, but the away version is much weaker. They have lost five of their eight road games and score only a goal a game away from home. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 18 games. This pairing is always close. The last 20 meetings gave Fagiano 7 wins, 7 ties and 6 losses, and they averaged just over 2 goals. The last five produced totals of 3, 1, 1, 0 and 4. A 1-0 Fagiano win is the likeliest finish, and one goal should be enough to decide it. The warning is recent history. Nagasaki have won both meetings this year, 2-1 at home and 1-0. They have also won three of their last five, including 2-1 over Kyoto Sanga last week, so they arrive playing well. We still think Fagiano have enough at home.