Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Aston Villa — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Two things point at a slow afternoon here: tired legs and a Gladbach side that keeps games small. Villa played the Super Cup against PSG only three days ago and lost 1-2. This is their last game before the league starts, so minutes get shared out and nobody runs flat out. Gladbach are the perfect opponent for that. They have not lost at home in seven, winning 4 and tying 3, and they let in less than a goal a game there. They score just over a goal a game overall, and only 7 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Villa are quieter on the road than their name suggests. Their away games have under 3 goals in them on average. They had 3 goals or fewer in 8 of their last 14 games, and Gladbach in 9 of 14. Both benches usually empty after the hour in games like this, and the football gets slower, not faster. A 1-1 is the likely finish, and that leaves us well clear. The risk is Villa's forwards. They score more than 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. A fast start from them would change the shape of this. We are still happy to back the quiet game.